April 23rd Preview

You’re coming down in distance from now through race day. An oddity of scheduling has you running shorter than our half-marathoners this Sunday, 10 miles for you and 11 for them.

The route (with an eight o’clock start from the Eugene Running Company): Oakway and Coburg Roads to Ferry Street Bridge and don’t cross. Turn left onto bike path, to Autzen footbridge and across. Turn right, past Valley River footbridge, to “0.5” milepost. Turn AROUND there and come back the same way: Autzen, Ferry and store. GPS distance is 10.15 miles.

Bring a drink for delivery at about 4.3 and 6.3 miles (small playground at “0.25” milepost). Weather forecast: starting temperature in 40s with rain possible.

WEEK 16 LESSON: YOUR POTENTIAL

Question: What can I expect my marathon race time to be?

Answer: The best predictor of the final race result, I’ve found with previous marathon teams, is the pace of the longest training run. For instance, a runner who trained at 9:00 per mile (for the 21 miles at which our program peaks) can expect to finish the race at very close to that pace. Nearly all of our runners come within 15 seconds, plus or minus – or 8:45 to 9:15 in this example. As with any reliable gauge of potential, this one isn’t based on what you dream of maybe doing someday but instead on what you really have done lately. I don’t say this to drain any of the mystery or surprise from your racing. Mainly I want you to know going into the race what a smart starting pace for you will be. Running at that rate early will assure a better finish.