Sunday is one of those rare times when our marathoners and half-marathoners
are in synch. You all run the same nine-mile course, which is…
Oakway and Coburg Roads to Ferry Street Bridge and don’t cross. Turn
left onto bike path, to Autzen footbridge and across. Turn right, to Valley
River footbridge. Turn AROUND there and come back the same way: Autzen, Ferry
and store. GPS distance is 9.15 miles.
Eight o’clock start from the Eugene Running Company. Bring a drink for
delivery at Ferry Street (about three and six miles). Weather forecast: sunny
with starting temperature in 60s, rising to an afternoon high in 80s.
WEEK 16 LESSON: YOUR
POTENTIAL
Question: What
can I expect my marathon race time to be?
Answer: The best predictor of the final race result, I’ve found with previous marathon teams, is the pace of the longest training run. For instance, a runner who trained at 9:00 per mile (for the 21 miles at which our program peaks) can expect to finish the race at very close to that pace. Nearly all of our runners come within 15 seconds, plus or minus – or 8:45 to 9:15 in this example. As with any reliable gauge of potential, this one isn’t based on what you dream of maybe doing someday but instead on what you really have done lately. I don’t say this to drain any of the mystery or surprise from your racing. Mainly I want you to know going into the race what a smart starting pace for you will be. Running at that rate early will assure a better finish.
Answer: The best predictor of the final race result, I’ve found with previous marathon teams, is the pace of the longest training run. For instance, a runner who trained at 9:00 per mile (for the 21 miles at which our program peaks) can expect to finish the race at very close to that pace. Nearly all of our runners come within 15 seconds, plus or minus – or 8:45 to 9:15 in this example. As with any reliable gauge of potential, this one isn’t based on what you dream of maybe doing someday but instead on what you really have done lately. I don’t say this to drain any of the mystery or surprise from your racing. Mainly I want you to know going into the race what a smart starting pace for you will be. Running at that rate early will assure a better finish.
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